From the first State of the Nation Breakfast in Pretoria, we unpack why the 2024 election was a reality check for every major party and why that’s (surprisingly) good news for South Africa. The ANC can’t pass reckless laws anymore, the DA looks like a party that “caught the car”, MK is already drifting into COPE-style dysfunction, and the EFF is shrinking into a one-man show.

Most important: 42% of registered voters stayed home and those votes are now the real battleground for 2026 and 2029.

IN THIS EPISODE
• Why coalition gridlock can actually protect SA from “majority madness”
• The ANC’s trauma: no more unchecked power + looming 2027 succession war
• The DA problem: built to oppose… not to govern
• MK’s dysfunction: “COPE 2.0” in the making
• EFF decline: revolution doesn’t sell to most South Africans
• Why voters deserve more respect than “they’ll vote ANC anyway”
• The election math: 40m eligible 30m registered 16m voted 42% stayed home
• The DA’s ceiling: why leadership optics matter if they want growth
• The big risk: Trump-style pressure can trigger protest votes for incumbents
• Foot-and-mouth disaster: economic damage + GNU silence

Don’t just complain get involved, share this conversation, and subscribe for more State of the Nation insights.

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Produced by Stream In Studios – https://www.streamin.co.za

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Chapters:
0:00 Welcome to the first Pretoria SONA Breakfast
0:55 Thanks + how the morning will run
3:23 400,000 followers: from COVID to live events again
4:10 Why I’m optimistic after 2024
4:58 ANC reality check: majority power is OVER
6:25 ANC succession war: 2027 could be the “last ANC president”
7:55 DA problem: the dog that caught the car
9:02 MK chaos: COPE 2.0 and Zuma without guardrails
12:36 EFF decline: SA isn’t built for revolution
13:51 Why dysfunction is (weirdly) good news: nobody can pass bad laws
15:35 Example of “cockamamie laws”: outcomes-based education + expropriation era
17:00 Gridlock = breathing room for the country
18:07 Citizens understand coalitions now
19:34 Stop saying “they’ll vote ANC anyway”
21:10 The real battleground: non-voters
21:27 The math: turnout collapse + 42% stayed home
22:56 What non-voters want: competence + delivery
23:53 DA ceiling: leadership optics and “read the room”
25:13 Why FF+ isn’t a mass solution
26:28 Steenhuisen to step down: DA opportunity moment
27:47 The wildcard: Trump can accidentally help the ANC
30:20 Economy warning: sabotage incentives + bad policy consensus
36:18 Foot-and-mouth: cost, small businesses hurt, GNU silent

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South Africa’s foot-and-mouth outbreak isn’t “bad luck” it’s a slow-burn state failure that’s now crushing farmers, threatening food supply chains, and risking export credibility. Theo de Jager (Southern African Agricultural Initiative) explains how SA used to contain outbreaks with red/blue/white zones, why command-and-control collapsed, and why farmers are now heading to court to win the right to vaccinate their own herds because government has the power, but not the capacity.

IN THIS EPISODE
• How 2002/2006 outbreaks were contained (and why that system died)
• The outbreak spotted in Nov 2024 but only declared “affected” in March 2025
• The “wildfire” problem: five months of delay national spread
• Why farmers stop reporting outbreaks: 12–14 months quarantine kills businesses
• Why dairy herds are getting wiped out first
• The vaccine bottleneck: control without capacity (vets, vehicles, cold chain)
• The price scandal: R50–R55/dose vs R300/dose “follow the money”
• The court fight: can farmers vaccinate their own animals legally?
• SA’s lost vaccine capacity: ARC stopped around 2006/07 + R480m “vanished” revamp
• Communal herds: 40% of cattle, no fences, no handling facilities state can’t do it alone
• The solution blueprint: private vet network + barcode tracking + nose-print ID + volunteers
• What Brazil did: farmers + volunteers vaccinated 300m cattle and regained FMD-free status

Don’t just complain get involved, share this conversation, and subscribe for more State of the Nation insights.

Get Daily Updates: ⁨@PoliticalInsiderZA⁩

LIVE EVENT TICKETS R550 ex VAT
The Tryst Kramerville (13 Feb 2026) with Moeletsi Mbeki & Mighti Jamie
Tickets: https://sona.co.za/index.php/events/

Follow @sonacoza on TikTok, Instagram, X, and Facebook
Produced by Stream In Studios – https://www.streamin.co.za

The State Of the Nation is Proudly Sponsored by Pace Car Rental
https://www.pacecarrental.co.za/
Use Code : SONA for a discount today!

Chapters:
0:00 Foot-and-mouth is spreading fast (why this matters)
0:46 Guest intro: Theo de Jager (SAAI)
0:56 Sponsor: Pace Car Rental (Code: SONA)
2:30 How SA USED to contain outbreaks (zones + roadblocks)
4:53 What collapsed: command-and-control failures
6:14 The timeline problem: outbreak seen early, action came late
8:13 Why farmers stop reporting (quarantine destroys businesses)
10:59 State controls vaccines — but can’t deliver them
12:03 Vaccine price scandal: R50 vs R300 per dose
13:26 Farmers go to court: right to vaccinate
18:41 SA lost vaccine production (ARC/OBP) + missing revamp money
28:55 Communal herds: 40% of cattle, hardest part to manage
39:18 Preventative vaccination: the only realistic option now
41:29 Brazil model: farmer-led rollout that worked
46:14 What SA must do next (private vets + tracking + volunteers)
49:58 Wrap + subscribe CTA

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Don’t just complain get involved, share this conversation, and subscribe for more State of the Nation insights.

John Steenhuisen stepping down as DA leader isn’t just gossip it’s a once-in-a-decade opening that could reshape South African politics. In this Weekly Update, we unpack why parties that never change leaders stagnate, why the ANC keeps declining, and why the DA could finally break out of its “arrogant outsider” brand if it chooses the right leader and message ahead of the 2026 local government elections and the road to 2029.

IN THIS EPISODE
• Why voters trust parties that can replace leaders
• The “big-name leader” trap (UDM, ACDP, IFP examples)
• How leadership stagnation accelerates ANC decline
• Steenhuisen steps aside: the real opportunity nobody is talking about
• Why the DA’s tone turns voters off (even when policies deliver)
• 2026 metros up for grabs — even Cape Town isn’t safe
• “Kroonvold for President” backfires — and what it revealed about voters
• Why a warmer DA leader could pull new voters in
• The Hill-Lewis question: leader vs mayor vs GNU minister — pick ONE
• The Cape Town mayor question: why the next choice matters strategically
• The DA’s best move in the GNU: standing firm on VAT
• The big bet: DA can reach the ANC’s ~30% zone and change the game

Get Daily Updates: ⁨@PoliticalInsiderZA⁩

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State of the Nation LIVE:
The Tryst Kramerville (13 Feb 2026) with Moeletsi Mbeki & Mighti Jamie
Tickets: https://sona.co.za/index.php/events/

Follow @sonacoza on TikTok, Instagram, X, and Facebook
Produced by Stream In Studios – https://www.streamin.co.za

The State Of the Nation is Proudly Sponsored by Pace Car Rental
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Use Code : SONA for a discount today!

Chapters:
0:00 Sponsor: Pace Car Rental (Code: SONA)
0:23 Why SA’s “real parties” hold elective conferences
0:47 The problem with leader-for-life parties (UDM/ACDP/IFP)
1:52 Why leadership change attracts better talent
2:43 Why the ANC keeps declining: stuck leadership, no progress
3:17 Big news: John Steenhuisen steps aside as DA leader
4:00 What analysts missed: the DA’s massive opportunity
4:42 Steenhuisen’s baggage: money spat + GNU minister pressure
4:56 The DA problem: combative tone + “I’m right, you’re stupid” vibe
5:43 The myth: DA didn’t grow votes — turnout collapsed
6:26 The opening: a warmer leader could reshape SA politics
7:14 The 2026 local elections: DA’s strongest terrain
7:24 The new message: invite voters in (don’t insult them)
8:14 Every metro is up for grabs — even Cape Town
8:31 Why critics target the DA: they know it delivers
9:23 The DA’s Achilles heel: arrogance brand + angry-letter politics
9:43 “Soft stuff” fix: market competence and honesty better
10:13 The honesty advantage: DA actually disciplines corruption
10:25 “Kroonvold for President” campaign — why it mattered
11:22 The surprise: black voters warmed to it (race wedge failed)
12:01 The real lesson: governance matters, but representation still counts
12:21 Hill-Lewis as frontrunner: why he “feels” different
13:25 The leadership trap: party leader vs mayor vs minister vs opposition
14:51 Cape Town mayor choice: why it’s strategically crucial
15:38 DA’s best GNU moment: opposing VAT hike
16:41 The roadmap: 2026 metros → 2029 national showdown
17:41 ANC succession mess vs DA’s moment
18:35 The thesis: DA could reach ~30% and change SA politics
19:24 Final warning: don’t ignore what voters keep saying
19:37 Outro + comment CTA + sponsor reminder

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South Africa’s foot-and-mouth outbreak isn’t “bad luck” it’s what happens when the state can’t produce vaccines, can’t roll them out fast enough, and can’t enforce biosecurity where it matters.

In this episode, Athol Trollip (ActionSA, sixth-generation farmer) breaks down:

1. Why South Africa is still scrambling for vaccines instead of producing them locally
2. The R500 million upgrade that didn’t translate into real manufacturing capacity
3. Why “declaring war” means nothing without supply, permits, and execution
4. How slow response + livestock movement accelerates spread across provinces
5. Why farmers carry the costs and why consumers feel it downstream

Don’t just complain get involved, share this conversation, and subscribe for more State of the Nation insights.

LIVE EVENT TICKETS R550 ex VAT
The Tryst Kramerville (13 Feb 2026) with Moeletsi Mbeki & Mighti Jamie
Tickets: https://sona.co.za/index.php/events/

Follow @sonacoza on TikTok, Instagram, X, and Facebook
Produced by Stream In Studios – https://www.streamin.co.za
The State Of the Nation is Proudly Sponsored by Pace Car Rental
https://www.pacecarrental.co.za/
Use Code : SONA for a discount today!

Chapters:
00:00 – Foot-and-mouth is back (and worse)
01:05 – Guest intro: Athol Trollip (ActionSA)
01:28 – Disclaimer + farming background
03:03 – The real source: Kruger buffer-zone collapse
03:48 – Timeline: 2019 → KZN 2021 → spread nationwide
04:20 – “No vaccine, couldn’t prevent spread”
04:37 – “Declared war” with no ammunition (vaccines)
06:28 – How SA lost vaccine production (OBP/ARC collapse)
07:24 – The missing R500m: where did it go?
08:39 – December cattle movements + ceremonies (risk explosion)
09:07 – Procurement fears + price markups (raised, not proven)
09:51 – Imports: Botswana + South America supply chain
11:01 – Who pays? Premiums get pushed into the system
11:52 – Export fallout: meat, milk… and wool next
13:06 – What the disease does to livestock (why it’s devastating)
14:17 – Why farmers should be vaccinating (but aren’t allowed to)
15:20 – “No skin in the game” inside the state machine
16:43 – Quarantine kills income — where’s compensation?
18:06 – Is this part of a wider “war on farmers”?
19:20 – Minister accountability + portfolio committee clash
21:22 – Institutional failure: governance, vaccine logistics, cold chain
24:19 – Provincial government’s role: roadblocks, certificates, policing
27:20 – Switching gears: Trollip on ActionSA in Parliament
28:24 – Politicians vs professionals: building a serious caucus
31:41 – Illicit trade + why VIP protection explodes
32:07 – Post-2024 politics: ANC arrogance is gone
35:25 – Coalition lessons: Tshwane + why “1-seat kingmakers” wreck cities
38:34 – GNU weak points + deputy ministers as “caretakers”
41:19 – Local election strategy: contest where you can govern
42:45 – Lessons from the MPC + DA/ANC “double dating” claim
45:20 – Small parties dying out + why ground-game matters
46:56 – MK Party assessment: chaos, churn, state-capture legacy
48:54 – Closing thoughts + upcoming SONA live event promo

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